Where did National Hockey League fans go during the 2004-2005 lockout? An analysis of economic competition between leagues

Identifying and evaluating competitors is a critical aspect of operating a sport organisation. However, North American sports franchises have a limited understanding of competitors in their geographic market - particularly when calculating the degree of competition from other sport teams. Increasing the understanding of local sport competitors, whether in the same or different professional leagues, is critical not only to future franchise operations, but also for potential litigation concerning relevant product markets. This paper utilises a natural experiment involving the National Hockey League's (NHL) 2004-2005 lockout to assess the competitiveness of the NHL with the National Basketball Association (NBA) and four minor hockey leagues. On average, the five potential competitor leagues attained a 2% increase in demand, all else equal, during the lockout period. For the NBA this translates into more than US$1 million per team in increased incremental ticket revenue.