Two types of economic voting: How economic conditions jointly affect vote choice and turnout

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Scopus citations

Abstract

The economic voting literature mostly looks at vote choice, ignoring potential effects on turnout. Studies that do focus on the latter often ignore the former, and come to contradictory conclusions. I develop a model of economic voting that jointly incorporates vote choice and abstention due to alienation or indifference. Analyzing ten elections with validated turnout data and conducting empirically informed simulations, I make two contributions. First, I show that "turnout switching" accounts for up to one third of total economic voting. This second type of economic voting is more common when the number of parties is low and responsibility is dispersed. Second, I show that a bad economy moves some people to abstain while having the opposite effect on others. The aggregate effect is ambiguous and related to macro-conditions in a non-linear way. This explains contradictory findings in the literature.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)39-53
Number of pages15
JournalElectoral Studies
Volume34
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2014
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Economic voting
  • Turnout
  • Vote choice

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Political Science and International Relations

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Two types of economic voting: How economic conditions jointly affect vote choice and turnout'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this