The effect of the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) on spatial aggregation of COVID-19 wastewater surveillance data

Yifan Zhu, Dustin T. Hill, Yiquan Zhou, David A. Larsen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Large wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) projects often have wide coverage and multiple sampling sites, necessitating spatial aggregation for data reporting and interpretation. However, the outcome may be impacted by a type of statistical bias called the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). In this study, we examined the presence and extent of the MAUP scaling effect on a New York State COVID-19 wastewater surveillance project. Specifically, we investigated three metrics: 1) the difference in wastewater SARS-CoV-2 concentrations between sampling at city-level site (i.e., city's primary wastewater treatment plant influent stream) and at upstream sampling sites; 2) the correlation between WBE data and clinical indicators at the WWTP-level and the more aggregated county-level; and 3) the proportion of population affected by misalignment of COVID-19 community risk levels at different spatial scales. The results showed that the MAUP can have a negative impact on risk perception by masking regions with high wastewater viral load or COVID-19 community risk level. On the other hand, the MAUP improved the correlation between wastewater surveillance and clinical measures by an average of 26.02 %. This is the first study to investigate the MAUP in the context of WBE and may encourage future WBE projects to consider the implications of the MAUP when interpreting and reporting spatial data, ultimately leading to better data representativeness and accuracy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number177676
JournalScience of the Total Environment
Volume957
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 20 2024

Keywords

  • Epidemic risk assessment
  • Modifiable areal unit problem
  • Spatial data aggregation
  • Statistical bias
  • Wastewater surveillance
  • Wastewater-based epidemiology

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Waste Management and Disposal
  • Pollution

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'The effect of the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) on spatial aggregation of COVID-19 wastewater surveillance data'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this