The decline in long-term earnings mobility in the U.S. Evidence from survey-linked administrative data

The growth in cross-sectional inequality has sparked concern about its consequences for long-run economic outcomes. We use survey-linked administrative data to estimate trends in long-term earnings mobility in the U.S. since 1980 focusing on differential trends by gender, education, and race-ethnicity. We find that long-term earnings mobility has declined since the 1980s. Declines in upward mobility have occurred for both men and women, reversing a trend prior to 1980 of increasing long-run mobility for women. The largest declines in mobility are for women and college-educated workers, which is driven both by increases in the rank of earnings early in prime earning years and growing persistence in ranks across the earnings distribution.