@article{b73c57aa6c8843a58d96d06faa11f74a,
title = "The decline in long-term earnings mobility in the U.S.: Evidence from survey-linked administrative data",
abstract = "The growth in cross-sectional inequality has sparked concern about its consequences for long-run economic outcomes. We use survey-linked administrative data to estimate trends in long-term earnings mobility in the U.S. since 1980 focusing on differential trends by gender, education, and race-ethnicity. We find that long-term earnings mobility has declined since the 1980s. Declines in upward mobility have occurred for both men and women, reversing a trend prior to 1980 of increasing long-run mobility for women. The largest declines in mobility are for women and college-educated workers, which is driven both by increases in the rank of earnings early in prime earning years and growing persistence in ranks across the earnings distribution.",
keywords = "D03, Earnings mobility, Inequality, Intragenerational mobility, J31",
author = "Carr, {Michael D.} and Wiemers, {Emily E.}",
note = "Funding Information: This analysis was first performed using the SIPP Synthetic Beta (SSB) on the Synthetic Data Server housed at Cornell University which is funded by NSF Grant #SES-1042181. These data are public use and may be accessed by researchers outside secure Census facilities. For more information, visit https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/sipp/methodology/sipp-synthetic-beta-data-product.html . Final results for this paper were obtained from a validation analysis conducted by Census Bureau staff using the SIPP Completed Gold Standard Files and the programs written by this author and originally run on the SSB. The validation analysis does not imply endorsement by the Census Bureau of any methods, results, opinions, or views presented in this paper. Funding Information: We thank V. Joseph Hotz, David Johnson, Emmanuel Saez, two anonymous referees, and seminar participants at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth for helpful comments. The authors gratefully acknowledge funding for this project from the Russell Sage Foundation ( #83-15-09 ) and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022",
year = "2022",
month = oct,
doi = "10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102170",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "78",
journal = "Labour Economics",
issn = "0927-5371",
publisher = "Elsevier",
}