The balance of all things: Explaining household poverty dynamics in 50 villages of Gujarat, India

Explanations for poverty have often tended to focus on momentous, especially calamitous, events. In this analysis we show how households’ longer-term economic fortunes are more significantly influenced by a succession of quotidian, recurring, and comparatively minor events. Rather than any single event, it is the balance of positive and negative everyday events that better explains where a household will eventually land up. Policy interventions can make a deeper impact on poverty by influencing the balance of everyday events.