System dynamic modeling of delay and disruption claims

The construction environment is uncertain, dynamic and complex in nature. The idea that small disruptions and delays can ripple through the project and mushroom in larger, more serious consequences is well established. Nevertheless, it is hard to identify and accurately prove the consequences of such disruptions. The system dynamic (SD) method is presented in this article as a tool that can show the logic link between cause and effect; that is, disruption/delay/acceleration and productivity loss. This in turn helps quantify productivity loss. Because the SD technique recognizes and models the interaction of work activities and graphically illustrates the mechanism by which disruption occurs, the results are accurate and persuasive. This article describes how to establish and use the SD model for acceleration, delay, and disruption purposes with a simple example. The importance and sensitivity of the coefficients in the SD model are also discussed.