Spatio-temporal patterns of gun violence in Syracuse, New York 2009-2015

David A Larsen, Sandra D Lane, Timothy Jennings-Bey, Arnett Haygood-El, Kim Brundage, Robert A Rubinstein

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Gun violence in the United States of America is a large public health problem that disproportionately affects urban areas. The epidemiology of gun violence reflects various aspects of an infectious disease including spatial and temporal clustering. We examined the spatial and temporal trends of gun violence in Syracuse, New York, a city of 145,000. We used a spatial scan statistic to reveal spatio-temporal clusters of gunshots investigated and corroborated by Syracuse City Police Department for the years 2009±2015. We also examined predictors of areas with increased gun violence using a multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression with data from the 2010 census. Two space-time clusters of gun violence were revealed in the city. Higher rates of segregation, poverty and the summer months were all associated with increased risk of gun violence. Previous gunshots in the area were associated with a 26.8% increase in the risk of gun violence. Gun violence in Syracuse, NY is both spatially and temporally stable, with some neighborhoods of the city greatly afflicted.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere0173001
JournalPLoS One
Volume12
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1 2017

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violence
Firearms
Violence
police
Epidemiology
Police
Law enforcement
Public health
Censuses
Poverty
Medical problems
poverty
urban areas
infectious diseases
Communicable Diseases
Cluster Analysis
epidemiology
public health
statistics
Public Health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Cite this

Spatio-temporal patterns of gun violence in Syracuse, New York 2009-2015. / Larsen, David A; Lane, Sandra D; Jennings-Bey, Timothy; Haygood-El, Arnett; Brundage, Kim; Rubinstein, Robert A.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 12, No. 3, e0173001, 01.03.2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Larsen, David A ; Lane, Sandra D ; Jennings-Bey, Timothy ; Haygood-El, Arnett ; Brundage, Kim ; Rubinstein, Robert A. / Spatio-temporal patterns of gun violence in Syracuse, New York 2009-2015. In: PLoS One. 2017 ; Vol. 12, No. 3.
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