Simulation techniques

Cognitive maps can be used in the simulation of individual belief systems. One such simulation, of a Middle East expert, was employed in Chapter 6 by Bonham and Shapiro. This appendix describes the techniques used in that simulation. Among the operations performed by the simulation on a given cognitive map are the formulation of alternative explanations of an unanticipated event, the selection of the preferred explanation, the development of expected consequences of the event, the search for relevant policy options, and the ranking of the relevant policy options.