Shot selection and managerial efficiency in the NBA

Purpose: We introduce a novel type of basketball shot chart, a true shot chart, that incorporates total points, accounting for both field goals and free throws, corresponding to each shot taken. We then create a shot selection measure called shot selection efficiency that summarizes the efficiency of a team’s shot chart. Lastly, we validate the measure using fixed effects regression analysis and determine whether shot selection is priced efficiently in the NBA player labor market. Design/methodology/approach: We utilize fixed effects regression analysis to validate a measure and also to determine managerial payroll efficiency in the NBA. Findings: We find that shot selection efficiency is a source of wins not fully explained by team payroll. That is, it is not fully priced into the player labor market. Research limitations/implications: Teams are in need of the shot chart summary measure provided, as they are not efficiently pricing players in the player labor market with respect to shot selection. Originality/value: This research introduces a novel shot chart type for basketball as well as a novel shot chart summary measure. It also validates the measure and establishes an NBA player labor market inefficiency related to the measure.