Ruthless prepayment? Evidence from multifamily mortgages

Estimates of a prepayment function for multifamily mortgages are reported in this paper. These are among the first attempts to estimate such a function; most previous work along these lines focuses on single family mortgages. A further distinguishing aspect of the paper is its attempt to incorporate the impact of unobservable factors on the mortgage refinancing decision. A variant of the maximum likelihood procedure first developed by Meyer [Ph.D. thesis, MIT (1987)] is employed. The results indicate an overall positive duration dependence for the conditional prepayment rate. The estimated response of prepayments to a change in the market rate of interest is significant with the expected sign; it is also larger once the effect of unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account. Nonetheless, the magnitude of the response is substantially less than that predicted by the ruthless option pricing model.