@article{d4abef2ac5bf49529bee8f81fa7e5af0,
title = "Relaxing Energy Policies Coupled with Climate Change Will Significantly Undermine Efforts to Attain US Ozone Standards",
abstract = "The United States (US) federal administration is relaxing energy policies (EPs), with yet uncharacterized effects on ambient air quality. The complex effects of EPs coupled with uncertainties associated with future climate have hindered past quantification. Here, we integrate model simulations to show that compared with a scenario of continued EPs and stationary climate, relaxation of EPs coupled with intense warming will increase the number of US counties in ozone nonattainment (NNA) by >75% in 2050. The NNA under the current standard of 0.070 parts per million (ppm) is projected to increase in 2050 from 27 to 49, while NNA under a tighter standard of 0.060 ppm will increase from 497 to 879. Our study demonstrates synergistic effects of EP relaxation with climate change on ozone standard compliance and indicates that the current decline in ambient ozone could be reversed by relaxing EPs in a changing climate.",
keywords = "biogenic emissions, climate change, conventional air pollutants, energy policy, ozone pollution, ozone production efficiency",
author = "Huizhong Shen and Yilin Chen and Yufei Li and Russell, {Armistead G.} and Yongtao Hu and Henneman, {Lucas R.F.} and Odman, {Mehmet Tal{\^a}t} and Shih, {Jhih Shyang} and Dallas Burtraw and Shuai Shao and Haofei Yu and Momei Qin and Zhihong Chen and Lawal, {Abiola S.} and Pavur, {Gertrude K.} and Brown, {Marilyn A.} and Driscoll, {Charles T.}",
note = "Funding Information: We thank P. Kondis (US Energy Information Administration [EIA]), E. Boedecker (US EIA), and T. Damico for providing necessary information on energy projection. This research is supported by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA grant number R835880) and the National Science Foundation (NSF SRN grant number 1444745). C.T.D. and D.B. acknowledge support from the JPG Foundation. This research receives support from the Brook Byers Institute for Sustainable Systems at the Georgia Institute of Technology for GT-NEMS and peripheral software. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the grantee and do not necessarily represent the official views of the supporting agencies. Further, the US government does not endorse the purchase of any commercial products or services mentioned in the publication. H.S. conceived the idea and designed the study. A.G.R. Y.H. D.B. and Y.L. provided suggestions on the study design. Y.L. and H.S. designed the alternative energy policy scenarios. Y.L. programmed GT-NEMS to model them. H.S. Y.C. and Y.L. prepared emission inventory and conducted CMAQ simulations. H.S. and Y.C. analyzed the results. H.S. wrote the manuscript with input from all authors. The authors declare no competing interests. Funding Information: We thank P. Kondis (US Energy Information Administration [EIA]), E. Boedecker (US EIA), and T. Damico for providing necessary information on energy projection. This research is supported by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA grant number R835880 ) and the National Science Foundation (NSF SRN grant number 1444745 ). C.T.D. and D.B. acknowledge support from the JPG Foundation . This research receives support from the Brook Byers Institute for Sustainable Systems at the Georgia Institute of Technology for GT-NEMS and peripheral software. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the grantee and do not necessarily represent the official views of the supporting agencies. Further, the US government does not endorse the purchase of any commercial products or services mentioned in the publication. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 The Authors",
year = "2019",
month = oct,
day = "25",
doi = "10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.006",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "1",
pages = "229--239",
journal = "One Earth",
issn = "2590-3330",
publisher = "Cell Press",
number = "2",
}