Relaxing Energy Policies Coupled with Climate Change Will Significantly Undermine Efforts to Attain US Ozone Standards

Huizhong Shen, Yilin Chen, Yufei Li, Armistead G. Russell, Yongtao Hu, Lucas R.F. Henneman, Mehmet Talât Odman, Jhih Shyang Shih, Dallas Burtraw, Shuai Shao, Haofei Yu, Momei Qin, Zhihong Chen, Abiola S. Lawal, Gertrude K. Pavur, Marilyn A. Brown, Charles T. Driscoll

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The United States (US) federal administration is relaxing energy policies (EPs), with yet uncharacterized effects on ambient air quality. The complex effects of EPs coupled with uncertainties associated with future climate have hindered past quantification. Here, we integrate model simulations to show that compared with a scenario of continued EPs and stationary climate, relaxation of EPs coupled with intense warming will increase the number of US counties in ozone nonattainment (NNA) by >75% in 2050. The NNA under the current standard of 0.070 parts per million (ppm) is projected to increase in 2050 from 27 to 49, while NNA under a tighter standard of 0.060 ppm will increase from 497 to 879. Our study demonstrates synergistic effects of EP relaxation with climate change on ozone standard compliance and indicates that the current decline in ambient ozone could be reversed by relaxing EPs in a changing climate.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)229-239
Number of pages11
JournalOne Earth
Volume1
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 25 2019

Keywords

  • biogenic emissions
  • climate change
  • conventional air pollutants
  • energy policy
  • ozone pollution
  • ozone production efficiency

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

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