Predictors of treatment outcome for alcoholics treated by individualized behavior therapy

Predictors of abstinent and controlled drinking outcomes were investigated for 69 male alcoholics who had participated in a study of individualized behavior therapy for alcoholics. Percent of days abstinent 19-24 mos following treatment and a measure reflecting control over drinking (Controlled Drinking Index) during that same interval were regressed on 3 posttreatment, 3 within-treatment and 7 pretreatment variables. These analyses suggested that drinking outcomes stabilize between 1 and 2 years following treatment and revealed that drinking behavior during the 6 mos preceding the criterion outcome interval was the best predictor of both outcomes. While a strong relationship was found between a controlled drinking treatment goal and controlled drinking outcomes, treatment goal was not related to abstinent outcomes. Total pretreatment alcohol-related hospitalizations were negatively related to controlled drinking outcomes. The contributions of these findings to an understanding of Client X Treatment X Outcome interactions are discussed.