Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs

Kevin T. Wright; Kathleen R. Johnson; Tripti Bhattacharya; Gabriela Serrato Marks; David McGee; Dillon Elsbury; Yannick Peings; Jean Louis Lacaille-Muzquiz; Gianna Lum; Laura Beramendi-Orosco; Gudrun Magnusdottir

doi:10.1029/2022GL098186

Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs

Kevin T. Wright, Kathleen R. Johnson, Tripti Bhattacharya, Gabriela Serrato Marks, David McGee, Dillon Elsbury, Yannick Peings, Jean Louis Lacaille-Muzquiz, Gianna Lum, Laura Beramendi-Orosco, Gudrun Magnusdottir

Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

Reconstructing hydroclimate over the Common Era is essential for understanding the dominant mechanisms of precipitation change and improving climate model projections, which currently suggest Northeast Mexico will become drier in the future. Tree-ring reconstructions have suggested regional rainfall is primarily controlled by Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). However, tree ring records tend to reflect winter-spring rainfall, and thus may not accurately record total annual precipitation. Using the first multiproxy speleothem record spanning the last millennium, combined with results from an atmospheric general circulation model, we demonstrate mean annual rainfall in Northeast Mexico is highly sensitive to Atlantic SST variability. Our findings suggest future precipitation in Northeast Mexico is more dependent upon the warming of Tropical Atlantic SSTs relative to the Tropical Pacific.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	e2022GL098186
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	49
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098186
State	Published - Jun 16 2022

Keywords

Common Era
Mexico
paleoclimate
precipitation
speleothem
stable isotopes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

Access to Document

10.1029/2022GL098186

Cite this

Wright, K. T., Johnson, K. R., Bhattacharya, T., Marks, G. S., McGee, D., Elsbury, D., Peings, Y., Lacaille-Muzquiz, J. L., Lum, G., Beramendi-Orosco, L., & Magnusdottir, G. (2022). Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(11), Article e2022GL098186. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098186

@article{44f881f5e5b54e9796886558d4b2dd1e,

title = "Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs",

abstract = "Reconstructing hydroclimate over the Common Era is essential for understanding the dominant mechanisms of precipitation change and improving climate model projections, which currently suggest Northeast Mexico will become drier in the future. Tree-ring reconstructions have suggested regional rainfall is primarily controlled by Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). However, tree ring records tend to reflect winter-spring rainfall, and thus may not accurately record total annual precipitation. Using the first multiproxy speleothem record spanning the last millennium, combined with results from an atmospheric general circulation model, we demonstrate mean annual rainfall in Northeast Mexico is highly sensitive to Atlantic SST variability. Our findings suggest future precipitation in Northeast Mexico is more dependent upon the warming of Tropical Atlantic SSTs relative to the Tropical Pacific.",

keywords = "Common Era, Mexico, paleoclimate, precipitation, speleothem, stable isotopes",

author = "Wright, {Kevin T.} and Johnson, {Kathleen R.} and Tripti Bhattacharya and Marks, {Gabriela Serrato} and David McGee and Dillon Elsbury and Yannick Peings and Lacaille-Muzquiz, {Jean Louis} and Gianna Lum and Laura Beramendi-Orosco and Gudrun Magnusdottir",

year = "2022",

month = jun,

day = "16",

doi = "10.1029/2022GL098186",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "49",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

issn = "0094-8276",

publisher = "American Geophysical Union",

number = "11",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs

AU - Wright, Kevin T.

AU - Johnson, Kathleen R.

AU - Bhattacharya, Tripti

AU - Marks, Gabriela Serrato

AU - McGee, David

AU - Elsbury, Dillon

AU - Peings, Yannick

AU - Lacaille-Muzquiz, Jean Louis

AU - Lum, Gianna

AU - Beramendi-Orosco, Laura

AU - Magnusdottir, Gudrun

PY - 2022/6/16

Y1 - 2022/6/16

N2 - Reconstructing hydroclimate over the Common Era is essential for understanding the dominant mechanisms of precipitation change and improving climate model projections, which currently suggest Northeast Mexico will become drier in the future. Tree-ring reconstructions have suggested regional rainfall is primarily controlled by Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). However, tree ring records tend to reflect winter-spring rainfall, and thus may not accurately record total annual precipitation. Using the first multiproxy speleothem record spanning the last millennium, combined with results from an atmospheric general circulation model, we demonstrate mean annual rainfall in Northeast Mexico is highly sensitive to Atlantic SST variability. Our findings suggest future precipitation in Northeast Mexico is more dependent upon the warming of Tropical Atlantic SSTs relative to the Tropical Pacific.

AB - Reconstructing hydroclimate over the Common Era is essential for understanding the dominant mechanisms of precipitation change and improving climate model projections, which currently suggest Northeast Mexico will become drier in the future. Tree-ring reconstructions have suggested regional rainfall is primarily controlled by Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). However, tree ring records tend to reflect winter-spring rainfall, and thus may not accurately record total annual precipitation. Using the first multiproxy speleothem record spanning the last millennium, combined with results from an atmospheric general circulation model, we demonstrate mean annual rainfall in Northeast Mexico is highly sensitive to Atlantic SST variability. Our findings suggest future precipitation in Northeast Mexico is more dependent upon the warming of Tropical Atlantic SSTs relative to the Tropical Pacific.

KW - Common Era

KW - Mexico

KW - paleoclimate

KW - precipitation

KW - speleothem

KW - stable isotopes

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85132073153&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85132073153&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2022GL098186

DO - 10.1029/2022GL098186

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85132073153

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 49

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 11

M1 - e2022GL098186

ER -

Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this