Population Policy, Demographic Change, and Firm Returns: Evidence from China

Zhiyong An, Yilin Hou

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We take advantage of China's relaxation in January 2014 of its "one-child" family planning policy to study the causal relationship between expected future demographic changes and firms' stock returns. We use an event study method as our identification strategy and employ data from Chinese stock markets to implement the analysis. We find consistent evidence suggesting that expected demographic changes exert statistically and economically significant effects on firms' stock returns. We address four potential threats about the validity of our empirical design and argue that our conclusion is not China-specific, but a generic lesson portable to developed countries.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number20180128
JournalB.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy
Volume19
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2019

Keywords

  • China
  • demographics
  • family planning policy
  • stock return

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

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