Policy and Policy Response on the Court: A Theoretical and Empirical Examination of the Three-Point Line Extension in Basketball

This paper considers recent and historical changes in the three-point line distance at the NCAA and NBA levels as an example of policy change with highly-measurable outcome(s). The paper presents several empirical tests describing a point-maximizing basketball team's optimal allocation of two-point and three-point shots. It does so primarily in the context that the NCAA Men's Basketball three-point line was extended from 20′9″ to 21′9″ in advance of the 2019–20 season, and similar analysis for the NBA in the 1990s. We find that a three-point line extension significantly lowers three- and two-point shot proficiency, while decreasing (increasing) three-point (two-point) shot volume.