Pairing paleolimnological inference models with mechanistic water column models enhances assessment of lake water quality

H. Chandler Rowell, Jay A. Bloomfield, Donald F. Charles, Charles T Driscoll, Steven W. Effler

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Reconciliation of paleolimnology inference models with hindcasts from mechanistic water column models aided the reconstruction of past relationships for total phosphorus/dissolved oxygen and acid neutralizing capacity/pH in highly polluted lake ecosystems in New York State. Pre-disturbance Onondaga Lake, Syracuse, NY, was shown to have experienced seasonal hypolimnetic anoxia even under oligotrophic (<10 ug l−1) phosphorus levels. In the Adirondack Mountains of New York State the paired modeling confirmed that, while many lakes have the potential to eventually recover from acidification by atmospheric deposition, approximately 30% likely experienced naturally acidic conditions (pH < 6) prior to increases in industrial emissions. Comparison between the model results illuminated areas of individual model inadequacy, improved understanding of lake ecology, and increased confidence in the ability of predictive water column models to accurately develop restoration scenarios representing improved conditions. The work presented here is the first such comparison modeling for total phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and acid neutralizing capacity. The technique remains to be more widely applied geographically and extended to less heavily stressed lake systems. Because a fossil inference and mechanistic hindcast should independently lead to similar results, comparison modeling is a potentially powerful tool for examining past interactions between ecosystem structure and ecosystem functioning.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-15
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Paleolimnology
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - Apr 27 2017

Fingerprint

lake water
water quality
water column
lakes
lake
phosphorus
water
dissolved oxygen
paleolimnology
modeling
neutralization
industrial emission
ecosystem structure
lake ecosystem
acid
ecosystems
anoxia
atmospheric deposition
acidification
Adirondacks

Keywords

  • Adirondack lakes
  • Chironomids
  • Comparison modeling
  • Diatoms
  • Onondaga Lake

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Aquatic Science
  • Earth-Surface Processes

Cite this

Pairing paleolimnological inference models with mechanistic water column models enhances assessment of lake water quality. / Rowell, H. Chandler; Bloomfield, Jay A.; Charles, Donald F.; Driscoll, Charles T; Effler, Steven W.

In: Journal of Paleolimnology, 27.04.2017, p. 1-15.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{b23007c9efda4201b9214595be2b54d8,
title = "Pairing paleolimnological inference models with mechanistic water column models enhances assessment of lake water quality",
abstract = "Reconciliation of paleolimnology inference models with hindcasts from mechanistic water column models aided the reconstruction of past relationships for total phosphorus/dissolved oxygen and acid neutralizing capacity/pH in highly polluted lake ecosystems in New York State. Pre-disturbance Onondaga Lake, Syracuse, NY, was shown to have experienced seasonal hypolimnetic anoxia even under oligotrophic (<10 ug l−1) phosphorus levels. In the Adirondack Mountains of New York State the paired modeling confirmed that, while many lakes have the potential to eventually recover from acidification by atmospheric deposition, approximately 30{\%} likely experienced naturally acidic conditions (pH < 6) prior to increases in industrial emissions. Comparison between the model results illuminated areas of individual model inadequacy, improved understanding of lake ecology, and increased confidence in the ability of predictive water column models to accurately develop restoration scenarios representing improved conditions. The work presented here is the first such comparison modeling for total phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and acid neutralizing capacity. The technique remains to be more widely applied geographically and extended to less heavily stressed lake systems. Because a fossil inference and mechanistic hindcast should independently lead to similar results, comparison modeling is a potentially powerful tool for examining past interactions between ecosystem structure and ecosystem functioning.",
keywords = "Adirondack lakes, Chironomids, Comparison modeling, Diatoms, Onondaga Lake",
author = "Rowell, {H. Chandler} and Bloomfield, {Jay A.} and Charles, {Donald F.} and Driscoll, {Charles T} and Effler, {Steven W.}",
year = "2017",
month = "4",
day = "27",
doi = "10.1007/s10933-017-9964-0",
language = "English (US)",
pages = "1--15",
journal = "Journal of Paleolimnology",
issn = "0921-2728",
publisher = "Springer Netherlands",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Pairing paleolimnological inference models with mechanistic water column models enhances assessment of lake water quality

AU - Rowell, H. Chandler

AU - Bloomfield, Jay A.

AU - Charles, Donald F.

AU - Driscoll, Charles T

AU - Effler, Steven W.

PY - 2017/4/27

Y1 - 2017/4/27

N2 - Reconciliation of paleolimnology inference models with hindcasts from mechanistic water column models aided the reconstruction of past relationships for total phosphorus/dissolved oxygen and acid neutralizing capacity/pH in highly polluted lake ecosystems in New York State. Pre-disturbance Onondaga Lake, Syracuse, NY, was shown to have experienced seasonal hypolimnetic anoxia even under oligotrophic (<10 ug l−1) phosphorus levels. In the Adirondack Mountains of New York State the paired modeling confirmed that, while many lakes have the potential to eventually recover from acidification by atmospheric deposition, approximately 30% likely experienced naturally acidic conditions (pH < 6) prior to increases in industrial emissions. Comparison between the model results illuminated areas of individual model inadequacy, improved understanding of lake ecology, and increased confidence in the ability of predictive water column models to accurately develop restoration scenarios representing improved conditions. The work presented here is the first such comparison modeling for total phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and acid neutralizing capacity. The technique remains to be more widely applied geographically and extended to less heavily stressed lake systems. Because a fossil inference and mechanistic hindcast should independently lead to similar results, comparison modeling is a potentially powerful tool for examining past interactions between ecosystem structure and ecosystem functioning.

AB - Reconciliation of paleolimnology inference models with hindcasts from mechanistic water column models aided the reconstruction of past relationships for total phosphorus/dissolved oxygen and acid neutralizing capacity/pH in highly polluted lake ecosystems in New York State. Pre-disturbance Onondaga Lake, Syracuse, NY, was shown to have experienced seasonal hypolimnetic anoxia even under oligotrophic (<10 ug l−1) phosphorus levels. In the Adirondack Mountains of New York State the paired modeling confirmed that, while many lakes have the potential to eventually recover from acidification by atmospheric deposition, approximately 30% likely experienced naturally acidic conditions (pH < 6) prior to increases in industrial emissions. Comparison between the model results illuminated areas of individual model inadequacy, improved understanding of lake ecology, and increased confidence in the ability of predictive water column models to accurately develop restoration scenarios representing improved conditions. The work presented here is the first such comparison modeling for total phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and acid neutralizing capacity. The technique remains to be more widely applied geographically and extended to less heavily stressed lake systems. Because a fossil inference and mechanistic hindcast should independently lead to similar results, comparison modeling is a potentially powerful tool for examining past interactions between ecosystem structure and ecosystem functioning.

KW - Adirondack lakes

KW - Chironomids

KW - Comparison modeling

KW - Diatoms

KW - Onondaga Lake

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85018267590&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85018267590&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10933-017-9964-0

DO - 10.1007/s10933-017-9964-0

M3 - Article

SP - 1

EP - 15

JO - Journal of Paleolimnology

JF - Journal of Paleolimnology

SN - 0921-2728

ER -