Luck in high-stakes firm lottery allocation: A natural experimental test of Coasean efficiency and invariance in a prominent sport finance setting

The NBA Player-Draft is a prominent sport-finance setting, with large rents allocated to teams. Several properties make this setting ideal to study the Coase Theorem in a cartelized-firm setting, where the Theorem's empirical credence and overall relevance to real-world financial settings continue to be questioned. Identification of a high-stakes, salient setting featuring exogenously-assigned property rights has proven elusive. While several studies examine the Coasean implications of professional sports league drafts, we find draft rights are endogenously-assigned. We cultivate, verify, specify, and examine an exogenously-assigned draft right—draft lottery luck—for the 2000–2015 NBA Drafts. Given its revealed exogeneity, we utilize variation in annual lottery luck as a natural experiment to study the Coase Theorem and find robust evidence for “instantaneous” Coasean efficiency (as in efficiency of the efficient market hypothesis) but also evidence that Coasean invariance, with respect to firm profits, fails. Secondary analysis reveals respective mechanisms and sport-financial implications.