TY - JOUR
T1 - Long-Term Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on Streamwater Salinity in New York State
T2 - INCA Simulations Offer Cautious Optimism
AU - Gutchess, Kristina
AU - Jin, Li
AU - Ledesma, José L.J.
AU - Crossman, Jill
AU - Kelleher, Christa
AU - Lautz, Laura
AU - Lu, Zunli
N1 - Funding Information:
K.G. was supported financially by the Syracuse University Water Fellowship and NRT: Education Model Program on Water-Energy Research (EMPOWER) at Syracuse University (DGE-1449617). The SUNY Cortland faculty research program 2012-2013 the Syracuse University Campus as a Laboratory for Sustainability Program (2017-2018), and the Geological Society of America Graduate Student Research Grant (Grant No. 11575-17, supported by National Science Foundation Grant No. 1712071), provided partial funding for this work. J.L.J.L. was funded by NordForsk (60501) and Formas (2015-1518).
Funding Information:
We thank Bruce Adams of the Cortland Waste Water Treatment Facility for access to weather station data for the City of Cortland and Patrick Reidy of Cortland County Soil and Water Conservation District whom aided with field sampling, historic water quality data, and information regarding snow management practices. K.G. was supported financially by the Syracuse University Water Fellowship and NRT: Education Model Program on Water-Energy Research (EMPOWER) at Syracuse University (DGE-1449617). The SUNY Cortland faculty research program 2012−2013, the Syracuse University Campus as a Laboratory for Sustainability Program (2017− 2018), and the Geological Society of America Graduate Student Research Grant (Grant No. 11575−17, supported by National Science Foundation Grant No. 1712071), provided partial funding for this work. J.L.J.L. was funded by NordForsk (60501) and Formas (2015−1518).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 American Chemical Society.
PY - 2018/2/6
Y1 - 2018/2/6
N2 - The long-term application of road salts has led to a rise in surface water chloride (Cl-) concentrations. While models have been used to assess the potential future impacts of continued deicing practices, prior approaches have not incorporated changes in climate that are projected to impact hydrogeology in the 21st century. We use an INtegrated CAtchment (INCA) model to simulate Cl- concentrations in the Tioughnioga River watershed. The model was run over a baseline period (1961-1990) and climate simulations from a range of GCMs run over three 30-year intervals (2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099). Model projections suggest that Cl- concentrations in the two river branches will continue to rise for several decades, before beginning to decline around 2040-2069, with all GCM scenarios indicating reductions in snowfall and associated salt applications over the 21st century. The delay in stream response is most likely attributed to climate change and continued contribution of Cl- from aquifers. By 2100, surface water Cl- concentrations will decrease to below 1960s values. Catchments dominated by urban lands will experience a decrease in average surface water Cl-, although moderate compared to more rural catchments.
AB - The long-term application of road salts has led to a rise in surface water chloride (Cl-) concentrations. While models have been used to assess the potential future impacts of continued deicing practices, prior approaches have not incorporated changes in climate that are projected to impact hydrogeology in the 21st century. We use an INtegrated CAtchment (INCA) model to simulate Cl- concentrations in the Tioughnioga River watershed. The model was run over a baseline period (1961-1990) and climate simulations from a range of GCMs run over three 30-year intervals (2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099). Model projections suggest that Cl- concentrations in the two river branches will continue to rise for several decades, before beginning to decline around 2040-2069, with all GCM scenarios indicating reductions in snowfall and associated salt applications over the 21st century. The delay in stream response is most likely attributed to climate change and continued contribution of Cl- from aquifers. By 2100, surface water Cl- concentrations will decrease to below 1960s values. Catchments dominated by urban lands will experience a decrease in average surface water Cl-, although moderate compared to more rural catchments.
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U2 - 10.1021/acs.est.7b04385
DO - 10.1021/acs.est.7b04385
M3 - Article
C2 - 29281783
AN - SCOPUS:85041465012
SN - 0013-936X
VL - 52
SP - 1339
EP - 1347
JO - Environmental Science and Technology
JF - Environmental Science and Technology
IS - 3
ER -