Local demand shocks, excess comovement and return predictability

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

I investigate the importance of local demand shocks on excess comovements and return predictability for 4560 twin-pairs of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) from 15 country-pairs. The returns on ETFs traded in the same country comove excessively with one another. These comovements are stronger for funds with greater liquidity and more competitors in the local market. In contrast, comovements are not materially different among ETFs that are attractive to fundamental (factor) investors. A local measure of mispricing, based on price-deviations between ETFs and their foreign peers, strongly predicts ETF return reversals. Betting against local mispricing yields significant abnormal returns of up to 20 percent per year after trading costs.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number105910
JournalJournal of Banking and Finance
Volume119
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 2020

Keywords

  • Arbitrage
  • Comovement
  • Correlated demand
  • Mispricing
  • Preferred habitat
  • Return Predictability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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