Kinship and Family Support in Taiwan: A Microsimulation Approach

By 1983, Taiwan had reached the final stage of its population transition, with both mortality and fertility at low rates. Such demographic change will increasingly affect the capacity of families to maintain their caregiving role. Due to reduced fertility, by the 21st century, many elderly persons may have few or no children available to care for them in old age. This article focuses on the family network as a potential source of support for Taiwanese elderly, using microsimulation techniques. The results indicate that the proportion of aged parents without working-age children can be expected to rise substantially. The decline in fertility that has already occurred will reduce the extent of children available to share parental support obligations and increase the support burden on individual offspring. As a result, continued dependence on children as the major form of support will leave a substantial proportion of elderly without resources and a large proportion of the younger generation with difficult financial burdens.