TY - GEN
T1 - Investigating the Combined Effect of Probabilistic Generation Forecasts and Dynamic Line Rating on Optimal Power Flow
AU - Lyu, Cheng
AU - Eftekharnejad, Sara
AU - Larson, David
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 IEEE.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - Current literature predominantly analyzes the effects of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) forecasts on Optimal Power Flow (OPF) by presuming static line capacities, neglecting their variability with respect to temperature and wind speed. This study investigates the effect of probabilistic VRE forecasts on OPF, considering dynamic line rating (DLR) under scenarios of high VRE integration and variable weather conditions. Using various machine learning methods, VRE forecasts with different accuracy and prediction intervals (PIs) are generated. These forecasts are incorporated into a Monte Carlo-based probabilistic OPF (POPF) framework to evaluate the impact of probabilistic VRE forecasts on POPF, in contrast to OPF using actual generation data. Case studies using a modified IEEE 118-bus system demonstrate that while improvements in VRE forecast accuracy yield limited improvements to POPF reliability, DLR implementation significantly enhances OPF reliability.
AB - Current literature predominantly analyzes the effects of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) forecasts on Optimal Power Flow (OPF) by presuming static line capacities, neglecting their variability with respect to temperature and wind speed. This study investigates the effect of probabilistic VRE forecasts on OPF, considering dynamic line rating (DLR) under scenarios of high VRE integration and variable weather conditions. Using various machine learning methods, VRE forecasts with different accuracy and prediction intervals (PIs) are generated. These forecasts are incorporated into a Monte Carlo-based probabilistic OPF (POPF) framework to evaluate the impact of probabilistic VRE forecasts on POPF, in contrast to OPF using actual generation data. Case studies using a modified IEEE 118-bus system demonstrate that while improvements in VRE forecast accuracy yield limited improvements to POPF reliability, DLR implementation significantly enhances OPF reliability.
KW - Dynamic Line Rating
KW - probabilistic optimal power flow
KW - probabilistic renewable generation forecasts
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85207380275&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85207380275&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/PESGM51994.2024.10688948
DO - 10.1109/PESGM51994.2024.10688948
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85207380275
T3 - IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
BT - 2024 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2024
PB - IEEE Computer Society
T2 - 2024 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2024
Y2 - 21 July 2024 through 25 July 2024
ER -