TY - JOUR
T1 - Historical changes in New York State streamflow
T2 - Attribution of temporal shifts and spatial patterns from 1961 to 2016
AU - Glas, Robin
AU - Burns, Douglas
AU - Lautz, Laura
N1 - Funding Information:
This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation , United States, EAR - 1316429 and an internship provided through the Graduate Student Preparedness Program (GSP). Any findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Coordination of GSP at USGS is through the Youth and Education in Science programs within the Office of Science Quality and Integrity. Additional support was given by Syracuse University EMPOWER National Science Foundation Research Traineeship, grant number DGE - 1449617 . We thank the editor, associate editor, four anonymous reviewers, and Dr. Charles Kroll for their helpful comments that substantially improved the quality of the paper. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
Funding Information:
This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation, United States, EAR-1316429 and an internship provided through the Graduate Student Preparedness Program (GSP). Any findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Coordination of GSP at USGS is through the Youth and Education in Science programs within the Office of Science Quality and Integrity. Additional support was given by Syracuse University EMPOWER National Science Foundation Research Traineeship, grant number DGE-1449617. We thank the editor, associate editor, four anonymous reviewers, and Dr. Charles Kroll for their helpful comments that substantially improved the quality of the paper. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2019/7
Y1 - 2019/7
N2 - To better understand the effects of climate change on streamflow, the hydrologic response to both temperature and precipitation needs to be examined at the mesoscale. New York State provides a hydrologically diverse mesoscale region, where sub-regional clusters of watersheds may respond differently to changes in temperature and in seasonal precipitation rates. Connections between streamflow and climate were examined for 97 gaging stations across the state and surrounding areas, for a historical period of 56 years of daily average streamflow. Gages were grouped into clusters if their mean annual discharge rates were strongly correlated to one another. Within each cluster, sharp temporal changes in discharge, or change points, were identified. These change points clustered both spatially and by flow regime, with low, medium, and high flows increasing around 1970 for much of the state consistent with other studies in the region. A step increase in Catskill low flows in 2003 coincides with increases in summer precipitation, and is consistent with a positive correlation between summer precipitation and annual low flows. Our results support previous studies that have shown that streamflow at this mesoscale is strongly tied to precipitation, and the strength of that connection is modulated by land cover, geographic position, and seasonal moisture conditions. Across the state, the winter-spring center of volume date has moved earlier along with increasing January streamflow rates, the result of warmer winter temperatures and an increased proportion of precipitation as rain. The transition to a post-1970s pluvial period also coincided with more frequent peak over threshold flows statewide, and this wetter period has continued to the present day.
AB - To better understand the effects of climate change on streamflow, the hydrologic response to both temperature and precipitation needs to be examined at the mesoscale. New York State provides a hydrologically diverse mesoscale region, where sub-regional clusters of watersheds may respond differently to changes in temperature and in seasonal precipitation rates. Connections between streamflow and climate were examined for 97 gaging stations across the state and surrounding areas, for a historical period of 56 years of daily average streamflow. Gages were grouped into clusters if their mean annual discharge rates were strongly correlated to one another. Within each cluster, sharp temporal changes in discharge, or change points, were identified. These change points clustered both spatially and by flow regime, with low, medium, and high flows increasing around 1970 for much of the state consistent with other studies in the region. A step increase in Catskill low flows in 2003 coincides with increases in summer precipitation, and is consistent with a positive correlation between summer precipitation and annual low flows. Our results support previous studies that have shown that streamflow at this mesoscale is strongly tied to precipitation, and the strength of that connection is modulated by land cover, geographic position, and seasonal moisture conditions. Across the state, the winter-spring center of volume date has moved earlier along with increasing January streamflow rates, the result of warmer winter temperatures and an increased proportion of precipitation as rain. The transition to a post-1970s pluvial period also coincided with more frequent peak over threshold flows statewide, and this wetter period has continued to the present day.
KW - Change point analysis
KW - Climate change
KW - Mesoscale hydrology
KW - Streamflow trends
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U2 - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.060
DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.060
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85064812522
SN - 0022-1694
VL - 574
SP - 308
EP - 323
JO - Journal of Hydrology
JF - Journal of Hydrology
ER -