EXPERT SYSTEMS IN FOREIGN POLICY DECISION MAKING.

Most successful expert systems have been developed in domains for which there exist well agreed upon problem representations. This study explores the possibilities and problems associated with building computational decision aids in the politically contested and poorly understood domain of US foreign policy. It is argued that expert systems might play a helpful role in such a domain both by aiding decision-makers in the consideration of alternative plausible interpretations for soft and incomplete data and by suggesting alternative problem representations and investigating their consequences. A small implementation which deals with US decision-making during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis is discussed.