Estimating Insulin Sensitivity and Beta-Cell Function from the Oral Glucose Tolerance Test: Validation of a new Insulin Sensitivity and Secretion (ISS) Model

Efficient and accurate methods to estimate insulin sensitivity (S I ) and beta-cell function (BCF) are of great importance for studying the pathogenesis and treatment effectiveness of type 2 diabetes. Many methods exist, ranging in input data and technical requirements. Oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) are preferred because they are simpler and more physiological. However, current analytical methods for OGTT-derived S I and BCF also range in complexity; the oral minimal models require mathematical expertise for deconvolution and fitting differential equations, and simple algebraic models (e.g., Matsuda index, insulinogenic index) may produce unphysiological values. We developed a new ISS (Insulin Secretion and Sensitivity) model for clinical research that provides precise and accurate estimates of SI and BCF from a standard OGTT, focusing on effectiveness, ease of implementation, and pragmatism. The model was developed by fitting a pair of differential equations to glucose and insulin without need of deconvolution or C-peptide data. The model is derived from a published model for longitudinal simulation of T2D progression that represents glucose-insulin homeostasis, including post-challenge suppression of hepatic glucose production and first- and second-phase insulin secretion. The ISS model was evaluated in three diverse cohorts including individuals at high risk of prediabetes (adult women with a wide range of BMI and adolescents with obesity). The new model had strong correlation with gold-standard estimates from intravenous glucose tolerance tests and hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp. The ISS model has broad clinical applicability among diverse populations because it balances performance, fidelity, and complexity to provide a reliable phenotype of T2D risk.