Ensemble method for short-term load forecasting using LSTM, SVR, and FFNN taking into account seasonal dependency

Vishnu Prakash, Hannah Fontenot, Asad Ali Khan, Bing Dong, Miltiadis Alamaniotis

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is used by building operators to make informed decisions about electricity usage and purchase. Recently, research has investigated the potential of ensemble leamingfor improvingforecast accuracy with researchers often to combine several of the same type of learning machines into an ensemble. In this paper, a novel diversified ensemble learning method is proposed and implemented for a small library building in San Antonio, Texas. Three different machine learning models-feedforward neural network (FFNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) network, and support vector regression (SVR) - are trained separately and their outputs are combined using an ensemble FFNN using the back-propagation training method to further reduce the prediction error of the load forecast. The proposed model is tested using smart meter data including outdoor temperature and total building electrical load at 15-minute intervals. The model is tested using data gathered from four different seasons of the same year, and is shown to capture the seasonal dependencies, with a mean absolute percentage error of 7%, while it outperforms the invididual prediction models in the majority of the tested cases.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationASHRAE Transactions - 2020 ASHRAE Winter Conference
PublisherASHRAE
Pages430-438
Number of pages9
ISBN (Electronic)9781947192492
StatePublished - 2020
Event2020 ASHRAE Winter Conference - Orlando, United States
Duration: Feb 1 2020Feb 5 2020

Publication series

NameASHRAE Transactions
Volume126
ISSN (Print)0001-2505

Conference

Conference2020 ASHRAE Winter Conference
CountryUnited States
CityOrlando
Period2/1/202/5/20

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Building and Construction
  • Mechanical Engineering

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