Centralised versus decentralised subnational debt and soft budget constraint: evidence from China

This article examines the causal effect of debt decentralisation on the budget constraint of subnational governments. China’s debt decentralisation reform of 2011 authorised four provincial-level units to issue debt on their own, but not the remaining ones. Using data on the budgetary expenditure and revenue of Chinese subnational governments from 2009 to 2014, we estimate the effect of the reform with a difference-in-differences approach, with those four provincial units as the treatment group and the others as the control group. Our findings suggest that debt decentralisation can help harden the budget constraint of subnational governments.