Bettor Belief in the “Hot Hand”: Evidence From Detailed Betting Data on the NFL

Rodney J. Paul; Andrew P. Weinbach; Brad Humphreys

doi:10.1177/1527002512465414

Bettor Belief in the “Hot Hand”: Evidence From Detailed Betting Data on the NFL

Rodney J. Paul, Andrew P. Weinbach, Brad Humphreys

Department of Sport Management

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

21 Scopus citations

Abstract

The “Hot Hand” hypothesis in gambling markets—belief that teams on winning streaks will continue winning—appears to exist in the National Basketball Association (NBA), but not the National Football League (NFL). Past research assumed that bookmakers set point spreads to balance betting volume on games. Recent research shows persistent imbalanced betting in most betting markets, suggesting point spreads may not fully reflect bettor preferences. We find significant increases in bets on teams on winning streaks against the spread in the NFL, suggesting that perceived “hot hand” effects exist in betting on NFL games. Betting with or against streaks does not earn profits for bettors.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	636-649
Number of pages	14
Journal	Journal of Sports Economics
Volume	15
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002512465414
State	Published - Dec 27 2014

Keywords

behavioral bias
hot hand
sports betting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

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10.1177/1527002512465414

Cite this

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abstract = "The “Hot Hand” hypothesis in gambling markets—belief that teams on winning streaks will continue winning—appears to exist in the National Basketball Association (NBA), but not the National Football League (NFL). Past research assumed that bookmakers set point spreads to balance betting volume on games. Recent research shows persistent imbalanced betting in most betting markets, suggesting point spreads may not fully reflect bettor preferences. We find significant increases in bets on teams on winning streaks against the spread in the NFL, suggesting that perceived “hot hand” effects exist in betting on NFL games. Betting with or against streaks does not earn profits for bettors.",

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Bettor Belief in the “Hot Hand”: Evidence From Detailed Betting Data on the NFL

Abstract

Keywords

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