@article{325cbf7fbc154307b2b77672d9ddf65d,
title = "Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Forecasts",
abstract = "Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world's poor. Model-based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their expectations in response to forecast information. The minority of herders who received these climate forecasts updated their expectations for below normal rainfall, but not for above normal rainfall. This revealed preoccupation with downside risk highlights the potential value of better climate forecasts in averting drought-related losses, but realizing any welfare gains requires that recipients strategically react to these updated expectations.",
keywords = "Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya, early warning systems, information, risk",
author = "Lybbert, {Travis J.} and Barrett, {Christopher B.} and McPeak, {John G.} and Luseno, {Winnie K.}",
note = "Funding Information: We thank the governments of Ethiopia and Kenya for research clearance, the International Livestock Research Institute for hospitality, and Abdillahi Aboud, J.S. Butler, Layne Coppock, Tag Demment, Solomon Desta, Cheryl Doss, Simeon Ehui, Getachew Gebru, David Just, Peter Little, Calum McLean, Robinson Ngugi, Sharon Osterloh, Jen Phillips, Amare Teklu, anonymous referees, and seminar audiences at the Northeast Universities Development Consortium Conference 2002 at Williams College, Columbia University, Cornell University, and the World Meteorological Organization for helpful discussions and information. This work was supported by the Pastoral Risk Management project of the Global Livestock Collaborative Research Support Program, funded by the Office of Agriculture and Food Security, Global Bureau, United States Agency for International Development, under grants DAN-1328-G-00-0046-00 and PCE-G-98-00036-00, by the USAID Strategies and Analyses for Growth and Access (SAGA) cooperative agreement, and by the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction at Columbia University{\textquoteright}s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the US Agency for International Development.",
year = "2007",
month = mar,
doi = "10.1016/j.worlddev.2006.04.004",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "35",
pages = "480--497",
journal = "World Development",
issn = "0305-750X",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "3",
}