Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts

Harrison Hong, Jeffrey D. Kubik

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

475 Scopus citations

Abstract

We examine security analysts' career concerns by relating their earnings forecasts to job separations. Relatively accurate forecasters are more likely to experience favorable career outcomes like moving up to a high-status brokerage house. Controlling for accuracy, analysts who are optimistic relative to the consensus are more likely to experience favorable job separations. For analysts who cover stocks underwritten by their houses, job separations depend less on accuracy and more on optimism. Job separations were less sensitive to accuracy and more sensitive to optimism during the recent stock market mania. Brokerage houses apparently reward optimistic analysts who promote stocks.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)313-351
Number of pages39
JournalJournal of Finance
Volume58
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2003

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Accounting
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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