All that i have to say has already crossed your mind

Roger Koppl, J. Barkley Rosser

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

29 Scopus citations

Abstract

We present three arguments regarding the limits to rationality, prediction and control in economics, based on Morgenstern’s analysis of the Holmes–Moriarty problem. The first uses a standard metamathematical theorem on computability to indicate logical limits to forecasting the future. The second provides possible nonconvergence for Bayesian forecasting in infinite–dimensional space. The third shows the impossibility of a computer perfectly forecasting an economy with agents knowing its forecasting program. Thus, economic order is partly the product of something other than calculative rationality. The joint presentation of these existing results should introduce the reader to implications of these concepts for certain shared concerns of Keynes and Hayek. Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2002.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)339-360
Number of pages22
JournalMetroeconomica
Volume53
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2002
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

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