A stochastic model for the evolution of the influenza virus

J. T. Cox; R. B. Schinazi

A stochastic model for the evolution of the influenza virus

J. T. Cox, R. B. Schinazi

Department of Mathematics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Consider a birth and death chain to model the number of types of a given virus. Each type gives birth to a new type at rate λ and dies at rate 1. Each type is also assigned a fitness. When a death occurs either the least fit type dies (with probability 1-r) or we kill a type at random (with probability r). We show that this random killing has a large effect (for any r > 0) on the behavior of the model when λ < 1. The behavior of the model with r > 0 and λ < 1 is consistent with features of the phylogenetic tree of influenza.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	155-166
Number of pages	12
Journal	Markov Processes and Related Fields
Volume	20
Issue number	1
State	Published - 2014

Keywords

Influenza
Mutation
Phylogenetic tree
Stochastic model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Statistics and Probability
Applied Mathematics

Cite this

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AB - Consider a birth and death chain to model the number of types of a given virus. Each type gives birth to a new type at rate λ and dies at rate 1. Each type is also assigned a fitness. When a death occurs either the least fit type dies (with probability 1-r) or we kill a type at random (with probability r). We show that this random killing has a large effect (for any r > 0) on the behavior of the model when λ < 1. The behavior of the model with r > 0 and λ < 1 is consistent with features of the phylogenetic tree of influenza.

KW - Influenza

KW - Mutation

KW - Phylogenetic tree

KW - Stochastic model

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A stochastic model for the evolution of the influenza virus

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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